{"id":3515834,"date":"2025-08-29T09:27:24","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T09:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3515834"},"modified":"2025-08-29T09:27:24","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T09:27:24","slug":"carbon-and-canadas-cars-business-as-usual-electrified","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2025-08-29\/carbon-and-canadas-cars-business-as-usual-electrified\/","title":{"rendered":"Carbon and Canada\u2019s Cars: \u201cBusiness As Usual, Electrified\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Auto industry voices in Canada have made headlines recently by\u00a0urging a longer timeline<\/a>\u00a0for the transition to electric cars. We should hope that Prime Minister Mark Carney does not give in to this demand.<\/p>\n

Yet even if Canada\u2019s federal government sticks to the current policy, and Canadian new car sales are 100 percent zero-emission by 2035, carbon emissions will decline much more slowly than the world needs. That is due to the auto industry\u2019s particularly pernicious strategy for continued growth.<\/p>\n

The industry can\u2019t keep boosting\u00a0unit sales<\/em>\u00a0in a country where almost everyone who can drive, does drive. But they can boost\u00a0revenue<\/em>\u00a0by selling bigger, heavier, more expensive vehicles when consumers need to swap their old vehicles for new ones.<\/p>\n

With that strategy, Canada\u2019s auto industry has done its part in\u00a0maintaining the growth<\/a>\u00a0of gross domestic product (GDP). But the GDP isn\u2019t all that\u2019s growing.\u00a0Pedestrian deaths and injuries<\/a>\u00a0are growing,\u00a0tire particulate emissions\u00a0<\/a>are growing,\u00a0traffic congestion\u00a0<\/a>is growing, and\u00a0consumer debt (due to auto loans)<\/a>\u00a0is growing.<\/p>\n

CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions from cars\u00a0are holding steady<\/a>\u00a0and should start trending down over the next five years. However, a \u201cBusiness As Usual<\/a>, Electrified\u201d transition will reduce emissions far too slowly to meet the climate-crisis challenge.<\/p>\n

Car Bloat in Canada<\/h3>\n

Statistics Canada figures show that unit sales of passenger vehicles\u00a0grew just over 20 percent<\/a>\u00a0between 2010 and 2024, while\u00a0population grew 21<\/a>\u00a0percent. Auto sales revenue, however,\u00a0grew by over 100 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Price tags have soared because the mix of new cars has changed drastically. Most new passenger vehicles are categorized as \u201clight trucks\u201d\u2014SUVs and many models of pick-up trucks. But \u201clight trucks\u201d is a euphemism we should translate as \u201chuge cars.\u201d Most of them are\u00a0used almost entirely<\/a>\u00a0to haul around one or two persons, just like small cars do.<\/p>\n

In 2010, the huge-car segment\u00a0was 54 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the Canadian market. By 2024, huge cars made up 87 percent of new passenger vehicles. This trend of \u201cautobesity\u201d or \u201ccar bloat\u201d has significant implications for Canada\u2019s strategy to reduce carbon emissions by electrifying vehicles.<\/p>\n

First, if the auto industry maintains Business As Usual, the vast majority of internal combustion cars sold between now and 2035 will be huge. They will have correspondingly high tailpipe emissions well after 2035. These emissions are often termed \u201ctank-to-wheel\u201d emissions.<\/p>\n

A second emissions category is termed \u201cwell-to-tank\u201d emissions. Gasoline or diesel fuel goes from oil wells or mines through an extraction-refining-distribution chain. This\u00a0adds significant emissions<\/a>\u00a0for every liter of fuel burned.<\/p>\n

An analogous category\u2014\u201cwell-to-grid\u201d let\u2019s call it\u2014exists for electric vehicles (EVs) when electricity is produced by coal- or gas-fired generators. Canada\u2019s grid is\u00a0powered predominantly by hydro or nuclear<\/a>\u00a0power, though, so well-to-grid is not a major category of EV-fleet emissions. (That could change if Canada adopts the \u201call the above<\/a>\u201d approach to energy taken by the United States, for example.)<\/p>\n

There are also substantial carbon emissions in the manufacture of cars. These emissions are higher for larger cars, and ironically,\u00a0higher for electric cars<\/a>\u00a0than for gas- or diesel-powered cars. If most new cars continue rolling off the assembly lines huge, carbon emissions from auto manufacturing will go up between now and 2035. That will remain true until the carbon-intensive industrial processes in the manufacturing chain are also electrified.<\/p>\n

Finally, if Canadians continue to buy as many cars as they do now and drive them as far each year, the fleet of huge cars will continue to\u00a0take up more roadway<\/a>\u00a0surface. Road construction is itself a\u00a0significant source of carbon emissions<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Beyond the Tailpipe<\/h3>\n

What will it really take for Canada\u2019s auto industry to reach zero emissions by 2035? \u00a0To answer this question, I projected six scenarios using a\u00a0carbon-emissions calculator<\/a>\u00a0developed by the International Energy Agency. I estimated tank-to-wheel, well-to-tank, and auto manufacturing emissions in each of the six scenarios.<\/p>\n

I incorporated road construction into my projections, using a\u00a0Statistics Canada emissions-intensity per dollar estimate<\/a>, multiplied by total road-construction expenditures for 2024. Passenger cars\u00a0account for 91 percent<\/a>\u00a0of total vehicle kilometers driven, while heavy trucks and buses account for 9 percent. However, trucks and buses individually take more road space than cars. Therefore, I assigned 70 percent of road-construction emissions to the car fleet. (I did not find adequate data to estimate carbon emissions from road maintenance, which would make the analysis closer to complete.)<\/p>\n

I estimated passenger-car fleet direct tailpipe emissions at about 72 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0in 2024. This is slightly less than Environment Canada\u2019s estimate of\u00a074 Mt in pre-pandemic 2019<\/a>. However, when I added the car fleet\u2019s share of emissions from the extraction-refining-distribution chain, from auto manufacturing, and from road construction, car-sector emissions came to over 115 Mt. That\u2019s a 60 percent increase over the tailpipe emissions alone.<\/p>\n


\nIf Canada\u2019s goal of 100 percent EV sales by 2035 is met, total car-fleet emissions will still drop only 41 percent by 2040.<\/em><\/p>\n

How will this change over the next 15 years? My \u201cBusiness As Usual, Electrified\u201d (BAU Electrified) projection through 2040 includes two somewhat optimistic assumptions. First, that electrification proceeds on schedule\u201420 percent of new cars being EV by 2026, 60 percent by 2030, and 100 percent by 2035. Second, that car bloat gets no worse (but also no better) through the coming years. The car\/light-truck mix of new vehicles, and the vehicle sizes within these categories, remain exactly as in 2024. Importantly, however, this would mean that the average size of vehicles on the road\u00a0would continue to increase<\/em>. This is because the smaller sedans bought ten years ago would be replaced by large SUVs and pickup trucks.<\/p>\n

Based on these assumptions, I projected that Canada\u2019s car-fleet emissions would be 41 percent lower in 2040 than in 2024 in\u00a0Scenario 1<\/strong>\u00a0(BAU Electrified).<\/p>\n

A 41 percent drop may sound impressive. But climate experts have warned for years that we must reduce global warming emissions by at least\u00a043 percent by 2030<\/a>. So, a 41 percent drop\u00a0by 2040<\/em>\u00a0is dangerously inadequate.<\/p>\n

Departures from Business As Usual<\/h3>\n

Making even modest changes to passenger-transportation rules could reduce these emissions significantly faster. I projected five additional scenarios, the best of which shows total car-fleet emissions dropping by 71 percent by 2040.<\/p>\n


\nModest changes to a \u201cBusiness As Usual, Electrified\u201d scenario would bring down car-fleet emissions by 71 percent by 2040.<\/p>\n

Scenario 2<\/strong>\u00a0is only slightly different from BAU Electrified. It assumes a 98 percent zero-emission electric grid compared to Canada\u2019s current national average of approximately 84 percent zero-emission.<\/p>\n

In\u00a0Scenario 3<\/strong>, the sedan\/light-truck mix is dialed back to 2010 levels between 2026 and 2030. In\u00a0Scenario 4<\/strong>, the sedan\/light-truck mix is dialed back to 1979 levels between 2026 and 2030.<\/p>\n

Scenario 5<\/strong>\u00a0builds on Scenario 4, except that vehicles within the sedan and light-truck categories drop modestly in size. In addition, I projected new-vehicle sales and average kilometers driven as dropping by 3.5 percent per year starting in 2030.<\/p>\n

Finally, in Scenario 6 the annual vehicle-kilometer figure begins dropping by 3.5 percent per year in 2026. In\u00a0Scenario 6<\/strong>, not only have CO2 emissions dropped by 71 percent by 2040, but the drop begins much sooner. The result is that cumulative emissions over the whole period are much lower.<\/p>\n

Rising Demand for Electricity<\/h3>\n


\nMore electricity means more infrastructure, such as the\u00a0controversial<\/a>,\u00a0$16-billion<\/a>\u00a0Site C Clean Energy Project. (CC BY-NC 2.0<\/a>,\u00a0Province of British Columbia<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n

Car bloat is likely to pose one more serious challenge in the effort to shrink overall CO2 emissions. A fleet of huge electric cars will add greatly to demand for electricity, at a time when we are also working to electrify other important sectors, such as home heating. We won\u2019t have enough renewably generated electricity to meet all these demands for many years. Therefore, a rational policy would conduce moderate levels of new electricity demand.<\/p>\n

I calculated that a Canada-wide EV fleet matching the BAU Electrified scenario would require 68 TeraWatts (TW) per year. A fleet of mostly small EVs driving about 60 percent as many kilometers a year (close to Scenario 6) would require only 32 TW per year. Either way, this is an almost entirely new source of demand, as we scramble to convert other carbon-intensive sectors simultaneously. But it would be much less challenging to build out a grid capable of providing 32 TW rather than 68 TW. A smaller grid build-out will likewise require less\u00a0environmentally destructive mining<\/a>\u00a0for critical metals.<\/p>\n

Business As Usual Is Killing Us<\/h3>\n

There are many reasons besides carbon emissions to conclude that a \u201cBusiness As Usual, Electrified\u201d strategy is a bad route. The huge passenger vehicles now dominating the roads compound the danger to pedestrians, cyclists, and anyone driving a smaller car.<\/p>\n

Huge passenger EVs\u00a0need huge batteries<\/a>\u2014and thus demand a rapid, reckless increase in critical-mineral extraction.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A lithium mine in South America\u2019s \u201cLithium Triangle\u201d: The impacts of the energy transition are invisible to many consumers. (CC Attribution ShareAlike 2.0<\/a>,\u00a0Reinhard Jahn<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n

Huge EVs, since they are heavier than corresponding internal-combustion vehicles,\u00a0create more dangerous particulate emissions<\/a>\u00a0from tire wear.<\/p>\n

A fleet of huge cars\u00a0takes up more road space<\/a>, increasing traffic congestion.<\/p>\n

And, huge cars chew up the roads faster, entailing more road construction and repair.<\/p>\n

So, we should support the Canadian government\u2019s plan for new-vehicle electrification by 2035. However, we should also demand that new vehicles be smaller, that the number of cars on the road gradually drops, and that vehicles drive fewer kilometers annually. There\u00a0is a wide range of policies<\/a> designed to achieve these goals. CASSE\u2019s\u00a0Sustainable Transportation Act<\/a>, for example,\u00a0includes provisions to get passenger vehicles and freight trucks off the road. It also discourages the purchase and use of the largest passenger cars and trucks.<\/p>\n

The sooner such policies are implemented, the better\u2014for drivers, non-drivers, our cities, our roads, our waters, our atmosphere, our future.<\/p>\n

Electrification is an important and necessary step for a sustainable, healthy future, but growth-driven Business As Usual\u2014even Electrified\u2014is killing us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Electrification is an important and necessary step for a sustainable, healthy future, but growth-driven Business As Usual\u2014even Electrified\u2014is killing us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":128238,"featured_media":3515844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[79716,213529,79718],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3515834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-energy-featured","category-environment"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/128238"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3515834"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515834\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3515845,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515834\/revisions\/3515845"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3515844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3515834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3515834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3515834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}