{"id":3515562,"date":"2025-08-21T10:03:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T10:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3515562"},"modified":"2025-08-21T10:03:45","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T10:03:45","slug":"the-peak-numbers-canadas-oil-friendly-newspapers-keep-ignoring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2025-08-21\/the-peak-numbers-canadas-oil-friendly-newspapers-keep-ignoring\/","title":{"rendered":"The Peak Numbers Canada\u2019s Oil-Friendly Newspapers Keep Ignoring"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Canadians have been bombarded with media stories promoting a common and simplistic theme equating more oil production with greater Canadian\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmog.com\/2025\/07\/23\/oil-sands-expansion-hasnt-brought-alberta-the-prosperity-its-leaders-promised\/\"><u>prosperity<\/u><\/a>. But what if the opposite was true?<\/p>\n<p>Lost in the oil-friendly\u00a0media cacophony was a recent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iisd.org\/system\/files\/2025-06\/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>report<\/u><\/a>\u00a0by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)\u00a0\u2014 an award-winning\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iisd.org\/mission-and-goals\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>independent think tank<\/u><\/a>\u00a0\u2014 showing that as the world reaches peak global oil demand in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>2029<\/u><\/a>, Canada could increase long-term public revenues by instead\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx#page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>curtailing<\/u><\/a>\u00a0additional\u00a0production.<\/p>\n<p>This finding is analytical antimatter to the pro-oil commentary Canadians have been marinating in for months.<\/p>\n<p>A quick glance at Canada\u2019s major news outlets shows overwhelmingly positive coverage for new fossil fuel pipelines or the country becoming an \u201cenergy superpower.\u201d\u00a0During the month of July alone, readers of the Globe and Mail were saturated with articles such as:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/Rzpvk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>To be an energy superpower, Canada must set aside flawed green ideology<\/u><\/a>;<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/VmbB3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Canada has a rare chance to be an energy superpower. Let\u2019s not squander it<\/u><\/a>;<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/GRVmy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Majority of Canadians support building new oil infrastructure, poll shows<\/u><\/a>; and<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/GZO8r\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Yes, absolutely \u2013 Canada needs more oil and gas pipelines to our coasts<\/u><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not to be outdone on oil patch cheer leading, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/calgary\/oil-sector-mark-carney-1.7521971\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>CBC<\/u><\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/TBQbD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Toronto Star<\/u><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/financial-times\/stakes-high-canada-race-energy-superpower\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Financial Post<\/u><\/a>\u00a0also offered up their own pro-pipeline content.<\/p>\n<p>It is therefore unsurprising that the detailed and timely analysis by the IISD was largely\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>ignored<\/u><\/a>\u00a0by mainstream Canadian media outlets. The Alberta oil industry knows if they are ever going to get another pipeline built,\u00a0this is their last best chance. The recently passed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>bill C-5<\/u><\/a>\u00a0grants the federal cabinet sweeping new powers to fast-track infrastructure megaprojects deemed to be in the \u201cnational interest.\u201d As the nation waits to see which proposals make the cut, the oil patch and their allies have cranked up the media hype to eleven.<\/p>\n<p>But as the Carney government is\u00a0apparently\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/energynow.ca\/2025\/07\/the-stars-are-aligning-for-a-new-pipeline-to-the-west-coast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>considering<\/u><\/a>\u00a0another expensive and contentious investment in yesterday\u2019s fuel, perhaps some thoughtful facts-based analysis is exactly what is needed.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-missing-from-the-mainstream\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Missing from the Mainstream<\/h3>\n<p>The IISD report looked at future scenarios based on oil demand projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and global market modeling from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rystadenergy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>Rystad Energy<\/u><\/a>. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iisd.org\/publications\/report\/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>main findings<\/u><\/a>\u00a0included:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Up to two-thirds of future oil and gas capital investments out to 2040 are at risk of becoming stranded assets if we limit climate heating to an already dangerous level of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This proportion of squandered investments could be higher if much hyped carbon capture technologies\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.corporateknights.com\/climate-and-carbon\/carbon-capture-and-storage-projects-are-failing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>fail to deliver<\/u><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Almost 40 percent of future fossil fuel investments will be uneconomic under current and announced climate policies. Small wonder then that the oil patch and their operatives have been laser-focused on demanding roll backs of climate regulations while\u00a0hyping increased production.<\/li>\n<li>The best way to economically leverage Canada\u2019s oil and gas industry is to limit production expansion while investing remaining resource revenues in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/neweconomycanada.ca\/investment-signals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>booming clean energy<\/u><\/a>\u00a0sectors such as wind, solar and battery storage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This 79 page analysis runs counter to the pro-oil commentary that increased production always leads to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmog.com\/2025\/07\/23\/oil-sands-expansion-hasnt-brought-alberta-the-prosperity-its-leaders-promised\/\"><u>greater prosperity<\/u><\/a>. While the immense media megaphone of the oil patch is effectively used to hype the sector\u2019s economic importance, figures in the IISD report are somewhat more humbling.<\/p>\n<p>Oil and gas extraction currently contributes only\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx#page=5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>three percent<\/u><\/a>\u00a0to Canada\u2019s GDP and provides less than one percent of government revenues and jobs. Automation has already eliminated over\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.parklandinstitute.ca\/job_creation_or_job_loss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>25,000<\/u><\/a>\u00a0oil and gas sector jobs between 2014\u00a0and 2021 and those job losses are projected to continue, wiping out about\u00a030 percent of the remaining oil patch workforce by 2040.<\/p>\n<p>The IISD report also reveals that doubling down on increased production will lead to\u00a0<em>less\u00a0<\/em>government revenue as the energy transition accelerates. Even in the absence of new or announced climate policies, public returns from fossil fuel extraction would be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx#page=61\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>$3 billion higher<\/u><\/a>\u00a0if we avoided investing in infrastructure that later became stranded assets. In a previous life, Mark Carney was one of the loudest voices\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/speech\/2015\/breaking-the-tragedy-of-the-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>cautioning<\/u><\/a>\u00a0against investing in infrastructure that would become worthless in a climate-constrained economy.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-banks-in-trouble\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Banks in Trouble<\/h3>\n<p>Perhaps even more worrisome is the massive exposure of Canadian banks to potentially bad debts owed by the oil patch and the wider implications for financial contagion. The IISD report\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/onlyoffice.infomaniak.com\/9.0.4-d30a3da48b9b1c04684988cfedeab28e\/web-apps\/apps\/documenteditor\/main\/index.html?_dc=9.0.4-50&amp;lang=en&amp;customer=ONLYOFFICE&amp;headerlogodark=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_dark.svg&amp;headerlogolight=https%3A%2F%2Fkdrive.infomaniak.com%2Fimages%2Foffice_logo_word_light.svg&amp;type=desktop&amp;frameEditorId=container-iframe-inside&amp;isForm=false&amp;parentOrigin=https:\/\/kdrive.infomaniak.com&amp;fileType=docx#page=55\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><u>warns<\/u><\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSeventeen percent of the corporate lending and bond and equity underwriting at the Big Five Canadian banks \u2014 CIBC, TD Bank, Scotiabank, RBC, and BMO \u2014 is to fossil fuels, with 68% of that exposure being to Canada-based oil and gas companies.\u00a0An assessment by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (2022) estimates that the probability of default in 2050 will increase by 150% for conventional oil extraction and 400% for oil sands, compared to current levels.<em>\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Does this sound like a sound investment in the future Canadian economy?<\/p>\n<p>A rush to the exits by investors in Alberta\u2019s bitumen extraction giants would trigger an increase in corporate borrowing costs, accelerating the exposure of Canada\u2019s largest banks to billions in risky assets. This could in turn tank Canadian consumer confidence, increase interest rates and undermine the wider economy. Prime Minister Carney \u2014 who has frontline experience dealing with past financial crises \u2014 should take note not to sow the seeds of a future financial calamity.<\/p>\n<p>If our country is to meet the mounting challenges faced by an uncertain future, we need to focus on credible fact-based information \u2013 not industry sponsored hype. The oil patch of course will relentlessly advocate for their interests \u2013 especially in the home stretch of implementing bill C-5. At this pivotal moment, the Canadian media does a disservice to the nation by amplifying spoon-fed industry narratives at the expense of actual sound analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If our country is to meet the mounting challenges faced by an uncertain future, we need to focus on credible fact-based information \u2013 not industry sponsored hype.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":128238,"featured_media":3515590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[79716,213529,79718],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3515562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-energy-featured","category-environment"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/128238"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3515562"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515562\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3515589,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515562\/revisions\/3515589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3515590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3515562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3515562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3515562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}