{"id":3515195,"date":"2025-08-20T09:59:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T09:59:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3515195"},"modified":"2025-08-20T09:59:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T09:59:56","slug":"nothing-can-stop-this-train-our-financial-predicament-from-a-systems-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2025-08-20\/nothing-can-stop-this-train-our-financial-predicament-from-a-systems-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"Nothing Can Stop This Train: Our Financial Predicament From a Systems Perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Recorded on: May 28, 2025<br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Embed Player\" src=\"https:\/\/play.libsyn.com\/embed\/episode\/id\/37597855\/height\/64\/theme\/modern\/size\/small\/thumbnail\/no\/custom-color\/04040c\/time-start\/00:00:00\/hide-playlist\/yes\/hide-subscribe\/yes\/download\/yes\" width=\"100%\" height=\"64\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Description<\/h4>\n<p>Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks \u2013 yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?<\/p>\n<p>In today\u2019s episode, Nate is joined once more by Lyn Alden for a deeper exploration of the intricate relationships between fiscal dominance, rising levels of debt, and the role of energy in shaping our current financial realities. Lyn explains how a historical analysis shines light on the gaps in economic theories like Keynesianism and Modern Monetary Theory, and what the implications are for our present situation. Using this perspective, they discuss recent trends in Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Artificial Intelligence \u2013 and what further developments in these areas might mean for average people in developed and developing countries alike.<\/p>\n<p>How can a deeper understanding of these dynamics prepare us for the economic challenges ahead? What lessons can we draw from past instances when public debt reached unsustainable levels? And as governments attempt to navigate familiar problems with new approaches, how might individuals prepare for the acceleration of this unstoppable train as we head into an increasingly uncertain future?<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LT96QsadYtw?si=doZUWUqWPDHCcmzm\" width=\"100%\" height=\"459\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>Show Notes &amp; Links to Learn More<\/h3>\n<p>00:00 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/\">Lyn Alden<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/broken-money\/\"><i>Broken Money<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<p>01:55 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eqdoO1dVZTM\">\u201cNothing stops this train.\u201d\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0(Breaking Bad spoilers!)<\/p>\n<p>03:00 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fiscaldata.treasury.gov\/americas-finance-guide\/national-deficit\/\">U.S. Fiscal Deficit<\/a><\/p>\n<p>03:51 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mercatus.org\/research\/policy-briefs\/fiscal-dominance-how-worried-should-we-be\">Fiscal vs monetary dominance<\/a><\/p>\n<p>06:34 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance\/\">Lyn Alden on fiscal dominance + public vs private debt creation comparison<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pgpf.org\/article\/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt\/\">U.S. Public Debt Composition<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/publications\/page-one-economics\/2020\/03\/02\/making-sense-of-private-debt\">Making Sense of Private Debt<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/meetings.imf.org\/en\/IMF\/Home\/Blogs\/Articles\/2021\/12\/15\/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion\">2020 global debt surge (broken down public vs private)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>08:12 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/publications\/review\/2023\/06\/02\/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements\">Approaching fiscal dominance again in the U.S.?<\/a><\/p>\n<p>08:45 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/january-2021-newsletter\/\">The Hindsight Depression<\/a>\u00a0(comparison between current economic situation and the 1930s),\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fee.org\/articles\/covid-policies-drive-national-debt-to-all-time-record-for-highest-portion-of-us-economy\/\">COVID-19 Policies Drive National Debt\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>10:05 \u2013 Great Depression causes:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ooma.com\/blog\/telegraphs-phones-mobile-devices-telecommunications-timeline\/\">telecommunication systems development<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/aitelephone.com\/blog\/telecommunications-money-transfers\/\">money transfers<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/speed-of-transactions-vs-settlements\/\">The Speed of Transactions vs Settlements<\/a>\u00a0(ledgers + money system centralization)<\/p>\n<p>10:41 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/oll.libertyfund.org\/titles\/jevons-money-and-the-mechanism-of-exchange\">Money and the Mechanism of Exchange<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/William_Stanley_Jevons\">William Stanley Jevons<\/a><\/p>\n<p>13:42 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/stocks\/10\/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp\">(Credit) Bubbles<\/a><\/p>\n<p>13:57 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreservehistory.org\/essays\/banking-panics-1930-31\">Banking Panics of 1930-31<\/a><\/p>\n<p>14:33 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ray_Dalio\">Ray Dalio\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2016\/10\/ray-dalios-long-term-debt-cycle-charts\/\">Long Term Debt Cycle<\/a>,<\/p>\n<p>16:30 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/fixing-the-debt-problem\/\">Total debt compared to base dollars<\/a><\/p>\n<p>18:00 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/monetarybase.asp\">Monetary Base (\u201cbase dollars\u201d)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>19:10 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/money\/Austrian-school-of-economics\">Austrian school of economics<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.principlesofeconomics.net\/economic-concepts-marginal-analysis\">comprehensive explainer on marginal analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<p>20:35 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.econlib.org\/library\/Enc\/KeynesianEconomics.html\">Keynesian economics<\/a><\/p>\n<p>21:40 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-4588060\">Modern Monetary Theory<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/f\/fiatmoney.asp\">fiat currency<\/a><\/p>\n<p>23:30 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreservehistory.org\/essays\/gold-convertibility-ends\">1971 official end of Bretton Woods system<\/a><\/p>\n<p>26:00 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/energy11\/permian\">Permian Basin<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.artberman.com\/blog\/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian\/\">state of Permian Basin production<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/jpt.spe.org\/twa\/current-state-canadian-unconventional-oil-and-gas-plays\">Shale and tight oil in Canada<\/a><\/p>\n<p>27:32 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/july-2023-newsletter\/\">Bank lending rates in 1970s and 80s<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S1544612323000405\">life cycle of baby boomers dictating credit cycles<\/a><\/p>\n<p>29:15 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pgpf.org\/article\/the-ratio-of-workers-to-social-security-beneficiaries-is-at-a-low-and-projected-to-decline-further\/\">Workers vs Social Security beneficiaries<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pgpf.org\/article\/u-s-population-growth-is-slowing-down-heres-what-that-means-for-the-federal-budget\/\">U.S. population growth rates slowing<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2024\/07\/1151971\">global population growth trends<\/a><\/p>\n<p>30:05 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/10\/24\/1207945692\/bonds-sell-off-interest-rates-mortgages-credit-cards-loans-economy-inflation\">2023 bond market look<\/a><\/p>\n<p>31:15 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/treasury-bonds-risks\/\">Invisible devaluation got us out of the 1940s when we faced similar problems<\/a><\/p>\n<p>31:38 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2020\/august\/what-yield-curve-control\">Yield curve control technique<\/a><\/p>\n<p>32:44 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/how-does-japans-yield-curve-control-work-2023-01-16\/\">Closer look at Japan\u2019s yield curve control<\/a><\/p>\n<p>33:22 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/uk-gilts-suffer-biggest-collapse-since-march-2020-meltdown-2022-09-22\/\">UK gilt crisis 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<p>34:10 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/markets\/us\/us-fed-likely-to-engage-in-yield-curve-control-russell-investments-survey-idUSL8N2DU1MM\/\">2020 Fed discussed doing yield curve control<\/a><\/p>\n<p>36:42 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sloww.co\/meta-crisis-101\/\">Metacrisis<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4kBoLVvoqVY\">Daniel Schmachtenberger \u2013 an introduction to the Metacrisis,<\/a><\/p>\n<p>37:15 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/read.realityblind.world\/view\/388478403\/136\/\">Peak Oil and the Immediate Fallacy<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/oil-2024\/executive-summary\">peak oil demand IEA 2024<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12\/\">Reuters article about IEA findings<\/a><\/p>\n<p>38:15 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-world-has-already-passed-peak-oil-bp-figures-reveal\/\">Peak oil November 2018,<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/iansutton.com\/alice-red-queen-eroei\">Red Queen Effect<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegreatsimplification.com\/episode\/54-arthur-berman?rq=peak%20oil%5C\">TGS about peak oil with Arthur Berman<\/a><\/p>\n<p>38:40 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rmi.org\/ev-batteries-101-the-basics\/\">EV Batteries 101<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rmi.org\/the-ev-battery-supply-chain-explained\/\">EV battery supply chain<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/afdc.energy.gov\/vehicles\/how-do-all-electric-cars-work\">Components of EVs<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fueleconomy.gov\/feg\/atv-ev.shtml\">EV energy requirements and efficiency<\/a><\/p>\n<p>39:22 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/consumption-and-credit-constraints-during-financial-crises\">Household consumption and financial crisis<\/a><\/p>\n<p>39:50 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/basicincome.stanford.edu\/about\/what-is-ubi\/\">Universal Basic Income<\/a><\/p>\n<p>41:30 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aipolicygroup.ca\/think-pieces\/the-future-of-blue-collar-work-ai-automation-and-the-urgent-need-for-policy-action\">Automation of blue collar manufacturing work<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent\">Goldman Sachs: AI and effect on GDP\/employment<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/~\/media\/mckinsey\/industries\/automotive%20and%20assembly\/our%20insights\/is%20industrial%20automation%20headed%20for%20a%20tipping%20point\/is-industrial-automation-headed-for-a-tipping-point-vf.pdf\">McKinsey &amp; Co study on industrial automation<\/a><\/p>\n<p>43:25 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/money\/what-is-cryptocurrency\">What is cryptocurrency?<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/money\/bitcoin\">What is Bitcoin?<\/a><\/p>\n<p>45:00 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/energy-research\/articles\/10.3389\/fenrg.2018.00026\/full\">Jevons\u2019 Paradox<\/a><\/p>\n<p>45:35 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/chaum.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/techrep.pdf\">Computer Systems Established, Maintained and Trusted by Mutually Suspicious Groups \u2013 David Lee Chaum<\/a>, 1979\/1982<\/p>\n<p>45:50 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nist.gov\/blogs\/cybersecurity-insights\/cornerstone-cybersecurity-cryptographic-standards-and-50-year-evolution\">History of cybersecurity and cryptographic standards<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nap.nationalacademies.org\/read\/26168\/chapter\/4\">cryptographic algorithms we use today<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ieeexplore.ieee.org\/abstract\/document\/7427652\">national bandwidths and the international digital divide<\/a><\/p>\n<p>46:55 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/egodeath.capital\/intro\">Egodeath capital<\/a><\/p>\n<p>47:50 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.expat.hsbc.com\/international-banking\/what-is-offshore-banking\/\">Offshore banking<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/money\/what-are-stablecoins\">stablecoins<\/a><\/p>\n<p>51:06 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.cryptonomist.ch\/2023\/08\/08\/circle-usdc-stablecoin-mostly-used-outside-us\/\">Biggest users of Circle\u2019s USDC stablecoin are non-Americans<\/a><\/p>\n<p>52:18 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/coinpedia.org\/price-analysis\/ethereums-volatility-slows-as-eth-rejects-4000-will-holders-trigger-strong-selloff\/\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on stablecoin adding $2 trillion to the U.S. Treasury<\/a><\/p>\n<p>54:22 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/forex\/061015\/top-exchange-rates-pegged-us-dollar.asp\">Currencies linked to the US dollar<\/a><\/p>\n<p>59:03 \u2013<a href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/bonds\/us-debt-50-trillion-2033-federal-deficits-treasury-bond-crash-2023-11?op=1\">\u00a0Michael Hartnett from Bank of America on US Debt projection<\/a><\/p>\n<p>01:00:14 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/tech\/how-much-worlds-money-bitcoin\/\">Total value of all bitcoin is about .3% of global capital<\/a><\/p>\n<p>01:08:06 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/business\/software\/what-is-a-gantt-chart\/\">Gantt chart\u00a0<\/a>and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/business\/critical-path-method\/\">critical path method<\/a><\/p>\n<p>01:12:50 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0921800919310067\">The Economic Superorganism<\/a><\/p>\n<p>01:13:50 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/usafacts.org\/articles\/is-the-us-energy-independent\/\">U.S. and energy independence<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In today\u2019s episode, Nate is joined once more by Lyn Alden for a deeper exploration of the intricate relationships between fiscal dominance, rising levels of debt, and the role of energy in shaping our current financial 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