{"id":3514807,"date":"2025-07-16T11:53:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T11:53:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3514807"},"modified":"2025-07-16T12:03:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T12:03:03","slug":"why-flash-flood-warnings-will-continue-to-go-unheeded","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2025-07-16\/why-flash-flood-warnings-will-continue-to-go-unheeded\/","title":{"rendered":"Why flash flood warnings will continue to go unheeded"},"content":{"rendered":"

“This story was originally published by Grist<\/a>. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here<\/a>.”<\/em><\/p>\n

This year\u2019s Fourth of July was the first time that the town of Comfort, Texas, used the sirens intended to warn its roughly 2,000 residents of imminent flooding. Founded by German abolitionists in 1854, Comfort sits along the Guadalupe River in an area known as \u201cFlash Flood Alley.\u201d It installed its siren-based warning system last year, a move that neighboring Kerr County, where well over 100 people died in this month\u2019s floods, opted against.<\/p>\n

One Comfort resident told Grist that when she heard the sirens, she had no way of knowing just how much urgency was called for.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn my mind, I\u2019m going, \u2018Okay we\u2019ve got a couple hours before it gets up to the house, because it\u2019s a 50-foot drop from our house to the creek,\u201d she said. Her husband started walking down to check on the water level, but quickly ran back inside. \u201cYou\u2019ve got five minutes,\u201d he told her. \u201cGrab everything you need.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Ultimately, she and her husband were lucky \u2014 they were able to shelter with a neighbor whose house is on higher ground \u2014 but their close call captures a dilemma that\u2019s taking on new urgency as flash floods claim lives from Texas to North Carolina: Even the most comprehensive disaster warnings are only as helpful as the responses of those who receive them.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019ve never seen water rise in front of you in minutes, it\u2019s hard to conceive of how quickly that can happen \u2014 and how quickly your life and property can be at risk,\u201d said Rachel Hogan Carr, executive director of The Nurture Nature Center, a nonprofit focused on flood risk communication.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s barriers to warning delivery from things like internet connectivity, people not having cell phones, or being asleep when a warning comes in,\u201d added Hogan Carr, who is also a co-chair of Integrated Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions or, InPRA<\/a>, a working group within NOAA that researches early warning systems. \u201cCommunities need to anticipate these barriers, and set up local systems in order to amplify the distribution of warnings when they come in.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the aftermath of the July 4 deluge, questions about the efficacy of local warning systems have swirled, particularly in Kerr County, which saw the most devastating flooding. Although the county had the ability to use FEMA\u2019s Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, or IPAWS, to push out aggressive, vibrating alarms to residents\u2019 mobile phones \u2014 similar to those that sound when an AMBER alert is issued to inform residents of a given area about a missing child \u2014 that system wasn\u2019t used until days after the flood<\/a>, as more rain headed towards the area.<\/p>\n

That said, cell phone customers in the at-risk service area were sent a variety of warnings \u2014 including a flash flood warning from the National Weather Service \u2014 but their effects appear to have been limited. Many received no alert, or only received an alert after the flood had overtaken them. Even if the county had sent additional warnings, many residents likely would have missed them if their phones were off or out of reach for the night.<\/p>\n

Plus, a warning from local officials may have carried more weight than the alerts from the National Weather Service, Abdul-Akeem Sadiq, a professor at the University of Central Florida who studies emergency management, told<\/a> the Washington Post. People tend to be more receptive to warnings that are tailored specifically to them, added Hogan Carr.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe saw this in Superstorm Sandy,\u201d she explained. \u201cEven though the entire New Jersey shoreline there was at risk, if it didn\u2019t say somebody\u2019s specific small town name, they often decided it [didn\u2019t apply] to them.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the night of the flooding, Kerr County resident Martha Murayama says she was woken up by an audible alert on her phone. But she turned it off without reading the warning, assuming that it was an AMBER Alert. Murayama lives in the gated subdivision of Bumble Bee Hills, which sit directly across from the Guadalupe between Kerrville and Ingram, Texas. By then, the flood was already well underway. Not long after she got back to bed, Murayama received a panicked call from her neighbor, saying that someone was banging on the door. It was a family who lived directly across from the river, trying to warn people as they moved to higher ground. Murayama was worried \u2014 her neighbor, Joe, suffers from Parkinson\u2019s and was not in good health. When Murayama\u2019s husband went outside to investigate, he was quickly swept away by flood waters, although he was ultimately able to make his way back to the house.<\/p>\n

Just up the hill, Ramiro Rodriguez was awoken by the same family seeking shelter. Like Murayama, he too thought immediately of Joe, and made his way down to the house through flood waters to help Joe and his wife up the hill. As they managed to pop the garage door open, Rodriguez spotted a tow strap, which he used to haul the couple to his house. \u201cI tied up Joe to my hips,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd right about that time, you can hear the flash flood warning.\u201d<\/p>\n

But just as quickly as the water arrived, it receded. Since July 4, Murayama says, she\u2019s gotten new flood alerts constantly.<\/p>\n

Flash floods are among the deadliest natural disasters<\/a> and the most difficult to accurately predict. Less than 1 percent of waterways across the United States have stream gauges that monitor rising water in real time;<\/a> the National Weather Service often relies on computer modeling to assess flood risk in smaller creeks and streams. (Kerr County only has six<\/a> river gauges, which makes predicting floods more difficult). But nearby development can quickly render these models outdated. For example, a stream bordered by concrete will flood much faster and cause much more damage in the surrounding community than one that runs alongside a park, which has natural features that can absorb water.<\/p>\n

Even when floods can be anticipated, communicating their severity to the public is a tall order. Because flash floods are very localized, even neighborhood-level warnings may seem like false alarms to some residents, leading to what the journalist Zo\u00eb Schlanger has dubbed \u201calert fatigue<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why early community education is such an integral part of a functioning warning system, according to Hogan Carr. \u201cIf you get a flash flood warning and you never see it, you got lucky,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Many people do not understand the speed with which floods move, which can lead to them driving through areas that are about to be submerged, for example. Warnings such as the ones sent in Texas, encouraging residents to \u201cmove to higher ground,\u201d don\u2019t necessarily convey urgency, according to Ashley Coles, an associate professor of environmental geography at Texas Christian University who studies flash flooding.<\/p>\n

\u201cI spoke to somebody regarding the flooding in Texas. They said, \u2018You know, if I had gotten that message I would\u2019ve gotten together a go bag and then gone to bed.\u2019 So they would have been ready to evacuate if needed, but it came so fast that they would have been swept away,\u201d said Coles. \u201cIt makes it very difficult even for people who are trying to be cautious.\u201d<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service has defended its response to the floods<\/a>, pointing out that it issued<\/a> warnings at 1:14 am, two hours before the flood waters reached inhabited riverside areas like Camp Mystic. But the warnings, though they cautioned that \u201clife-threatening\u201d flooding was possible, did not order evacuations.<\/p>\n

As climate change makes flash floods and other extreme weather events more common and deadly<\/a>, researchers across the country are struggling with how to effectively communicate risk to the public, without losing their trust through over-warning.<\/p>\n

\u201dIt has to be really a comprehensive strategy of community support, wrapped around the issuance of a formal flood warning,\u201d said Hogan Carr, explaining that ideally, the local weather service would have a forecaster whose job was dedicated to doing community outreach, explaining local risks, where forecasts come from, and where residents can get reliable information in an emergency. \u201cIt\u2019s an investment of time and resources proactively, that could pay off tremendously during these large-scale events,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Kerr County residents are hoping for a siren system, like the one used in neighboring Comfort.<\/p>\n

\u201cI slept through [the phone alert],\u201d said Rodriguez. \u201cIf it wasn\u2019t for those people knocking on the door, I would have slept right through it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Grist has\u00a0a comprehensive guide<\/a>\u00a0to help you stay ready and informed before, during, and after a disa<\/em>ster.<\/p>\n

Are you affected by the flooding in Texas and North Carolina?\u00a0Learn how to navigate disaster relief and response<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Explore the full\u00a0Disaster 101 resource guide<\/a>\u00a0for more on your rights and options when disaster hits.<\/em><\/p>\n

Get prepared.\u00a0Learn how to be ready for a disaster before you\u2019re affected<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

This article originally appeared in Grist<\/a> at https:\/\/grist.org\/extreme-weather\/flash-flood-warnings-cell-phones-texas\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org<\/a><\/p>\n